MONERO [XMR] REPORT - Scaling New Heights in Blockchain Performance: 2025 Portfolio / Part Two

Part Two / Page 6

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Development Roadmap and Future Upgrades

Monero’s longevity and competitiveness depend on ongoing development. The project has a track record of frequent improvements (roughly one or two major network upgrades per year) and a clear pipeline of future enhancements. Here we outline Monero’s development roadmap as of 2025, highlighting upcoming technological milestones and how they may affect Monero’s utility and investment case.

Governance of Roadmap: Monero does not have a centralized foundation dictating its roadmap. Instead, development priorities emerge from the Monero Research Lab, community discussions, and proposals by contributors. That said, there is broad consensus on certain major upgrades being desirable. The core team (now transitioning to workgroups, as discussed in Governance) typically coordinates network upgrades (hard forks) once new features are ready and audited. These hard forks are voted in by adoption – if the community updates their software, the fork activates (Monero hasn’t had issues reaching consensus on upgrades to date). Monero’s software is programmed to support hard fork changes roughly every 6-12 months if needed (What Is Monero & How Does It Work? Who Created XMR?), a cadence the project has kept fairly well.

Recent Completed Milestones (2022–Early 2024):

• August 2022 – “Fluorine Fermi” Upgrade: Introduced Bulletproofs+ (an optimized range proof, further reducing verification time), increased ring size to 16 (from 11), and improved transaction reliability. Also introduced view tags to speed up wallet scanning by 30-40%. This upgrade significantly boosted efficiency and privacy sets ( Bulletproofs | Moneropedia | Monero - secure, private, untraceable ).
  
  
• 2023 Improvements: Focus was on backend and research. For example, subaddresses (allowing unlimited one-time public addresses per wallet) became standard practice, improving privacy when reusing wallets. Work on multi-signature wallet improvements was underway (to facilitate things like Haveno’s escrow).
  
  
• Atomic Swaps: By January 2024, atomic swaps between XMR and BTC were operational via community tools, and atomic swaps between XMR and BCH had been completed in prototype ( Roadmap | Monero - secure, private, untraceable ). This was a key achievement in building bridges to other cryptos without third parties.
  
  
• May 2024 – Haveno DEX Beta: According to the official Monero roadmap, Haveno decentralized exchange was released in May 2024 ( Roadmap | Monero - secure, private, untraceable ). By connecting buyers and sellers of XMR over Tor with multi-sig escrow, Haveno aims to provide Monero<>fiat and Monero<>BTC marketplaces outside of centralized control. The beta release marks a step toward solving Monero’s liquidity problem in a compliant way (since it’s non-custodial and peer-to-peer, it’s harder to shut down).
  
  
• Prototype Rust Implementation: A project called “Monero Rust Daemon (Cuprate)” is in progress ( Roadmap | Monero - secure, private, untraceable ). While not fully done as of 2024, parts of Monero’s codebase have been re-written in Rust (from C++). A Rust implementation could bring memory safety and attract more developers. The roadmap lists it as ongoing.
  
  

Upcoming / “Coming Soon” (Late 2024 into 2025): The official Monero roadmap highlights several exciting developments labeled as “Coming Soon” ( Roadmap | Monero - secure, private, untraceable ):

• Seraphis & Jamtis: This is the major upgrade on the horizon. Seraphis is a new transaction protocol design proposed by MRL contributor koe. Paired with Jamtis (the address scheme), it would fundamentally change how outputs are managed and spent in Monero. Key expected benefits:
  
  
  
  • Much Larger Anonymity Sets: Seraphis would decouple ring size from anonymity set by potentially allowing ring signatures that cover all past outputs in the system via cryptographic trickery (or at least significantly larger rings than 16) (Full-Chain Membership Proofs Development - Monero) (OSPEAD - Optimal Ring Signature Research - Monero). Research into Full-Chain Membership Proofs (FCMP) aligns with this – imagine every Monero spend hiding among millions of possible decoys instead of 15. This would render many statistical analysis methods obsolete and make Monero even more private.
    
    
  • Improved Efficiency: Seraphis is designed to optimize the structure of transactions. It could reduce the size and verification cost of large-ring transactions so that using, say, 128 decoys is feasible without bloating the blockchain. Also, multi-signature transactions and multi-output transfers would be more elegant under Seraphis, helping things like wallets and payment channels.
    
    
  • Jamtis (New Addressing): Jamtis would introduce a new address format to support Seraphis, likely making addresses shorter and adding flexibility (like easier multi-sig address generation). It may also allow “view tags” that further speed up wallet scanning beyond what’s done now.
    
    
  • Timeline: As of Q1 2024, Seraphis code was under active development and auditing. A full implementation is expected possibly in 2025, depending on audits and testing. This will be a hard fork event when it happens. It’s a complex upgrade, so the community is careful to ensure it’s secure (Monero’s privacy depends on it). Once live, Seraphis/Jamtis would be the biggest evolution in Monero since RingCT in 2017 – effectively Monero 2.0 in privacy terms.
    
    
• Bulletproofs++: An enhanced version of Bulletproofs range proofs, co-developed by Monero researchers and cryptographers. Bulletproofs++ could further shrink transaction sizes slightly and/or reduce verification time. It’s listed as a near-term item ( Roadmap | Monero - secure, private, untraceable ). This likely will accompany Seraphis (ensuring that even if rings are bigger, the size impact is offset by more efficient proofs).
  
  
• OSPEAD Decoy Selection Algorithm: Researcher @Rucknium has been working on OSPEAD, which stands for Optimal Static Parametric Estimation of Arbitrary Distributions (Rucknium-OSPEAD-Fortifying-Monero-Against-Statistical-Attack.md). In plain terms, it’s a new algorithm for selecting decoys (fake inputs) in Monero transactions such that the distribution of decoy ages perfectly mimics the distribution of real spend ages. This addresses a known attack where if users spend outputs quickly, the decoy selection could make the real one obvious. OSPEAD aims to fortify Monero against statistical tracing attacks (Progress Report on OSPEAD: Fortifying Monero Against Statistical ...). Progress reports indicate this will likely be integrated in a coming release, possibly alongside Seraphis or even before. It doesn’t require a hard fork to adjust decoy selection (it’s a client-side behavior), but to uniformly require it, it might be coordinated with an upgrade. Once in place, OSPEAD would make transaction tracing even harder and close one of the remaining analysis angles.
  
  
• Privacy Improvements Beyond Base Layer: There are conceptual discussions on things like Monero’s view key system (e.g., allowing more granular sharing of transaction data with auditors if needed) and maybe one day implementing dummy traffic at the network layer to thwart statistical metadata analysis. These are not concrete on the roadmap, but Monero Research Lab continuously looks at new academic developments (like Lelantus or other protocols) to adopt if beneficial. Monero’s modular design (with Seraphis) could allow incorporating future zero-knowledge proof schemes if they prove advantageous and efficient.
  
  
• Scaling and Performance: While Monero’s main focus is privacy, the devs are aware of scaling needs:
  
  
  
  • Efficient Sync: Efforts like “FluffyBlocks” and future compact block propagation are in development to make node synchronization faster (currently initial sync can take many hours). Improvements here will help user experience.
    
    
  • Pruning: Monero already supports blockchain pruning (dropping old bulletproofs, etc., to reduce storage by ~1/3). Further pruning or storage optimization could come as the chain grows.
    
    
  • Lite Nodes: There’s community interest in developing a Monero light client protocol (similar to Bitcoin’s SPV, but tricky due to privacy). Ideas like client-side block filtering or trust-minimized light wallets are being explored, to broaden accessibility.
    
    
  • Fee Market Adjustments: With tail emission, Monero’s fee market is different; still, devs monitor if the fee algorithm or dynamic block penalties need tweaking to ensure fees stay low but prevent spam. So far, no serious spam attacks, but it’s watched.
    
    
• Mining & Algorithm: RandomX is still effective, but in future (2028+) if ASICs for RandomX emerge or if other issues arise, Monero could change PoW again (as it historically did multiple times to thwart ASICs). There is no scheduled change now, but Monero stays adaptable (“Proof-of-Work Algorithm Variability” is even noted in its design (Monero Price, XMR to USD, Research, News & Fundraising | Messari)). Also, as quantum computing advances (a long-term threat), Monero will assess quantum-resistant algorithms for both PoW and its crypto (though likely not an issue in this decade).
  
  
• Second-Layer Possibilities: Monero doesn’t natively support smart contracts, but ideas like sidechains or layer-2s have been floated. Tari, a merge-mined sidechain project started by former Monero lead Riccardo Spagni, is one such example – aiming to bring assets/NFTs in a Monero-like environment. Tari is separate (it has its own token, XTR, and is still in development). While not part of Monero’s roadmap, if Tari or others succeed, they could indirectly increase Monero usage (via merge mining incentives or atomic swaps). The Monero community is generally open to side initiatives as long as they don’t compromise Monero’s core network. There’s also been talk of payment channels for Monero (like Lightning but for XMR) – this is challenging due to the difficulty of watching channels privately, but research is on.
  
  

Development Funding and Velocity: The community has funded dozens of proposals that feed into this roadmap:

• For example, audit funding for Seraphis was raised via the Community Crowdfunding System (CCS) in 2022–2023 (Monero Community Workgroup Meeting: Saturday 6th July 15 ...).
  
  
• Full-time developer contracts (e.g., for core developers like vtnerd, selsta, etc.) are funded quarterly by community donations (vtnerd full-time 2024 q3 - Monero CCS). This ensures that critical work (like implementing Seraphis, OSPEAD, optimizing code) gets done.
  
  
• Monero Research Lab papers and meetings happen regularly (MRL publishes notes on meetings roughly monthly on the getmonero site and GitHub ([Discussion] Updating the roadmap on the official website : r/Monero)). These give insight into priorities – recent MRL meetings have heavily focused on Seraphis, decoy science, and analysis of any traceability issues that arise.
  
  

Risks in Roadmap Execution: While the roadmap is promising, investors should consider development risks:

• Delays: Hard tech challenges (like Seraphis) could take longer than expected or uncover new complexities. If Seraphis was significantly delayed, Monero would continue with current ringCT, but competitor technologies might catch up. So far, Monero devs have been prudent, not rushing untested features – which is good for security but means timelines are flexible.
  
  
• Bugs: Introducing big changes (e.g., new cryptography) always carries risk of bugs. Monero’s process includes extensive audits, but the possibility of a hidden bug (worst-case: an inflation bug or privacy-breaking bug) is non-zero. A known incident: in 2017 a subtle bug in CryptoNote allowed infinite minting on a lesser-known coin; Monero quietly patched it before anyone exploited it (Monero - Wikipedia) (Monero - Wikipedia). Vigilance is high, but software risk remains.
  
  
• Community Consensus: If any proposed change were controversial (for example, some in the community initially resisted increasing ring size due to performance, but consensus was reached), it could cause splits. So far, Monero’s community has been cohesive. The disbanding of the old Core Team in favor of workgroups in 2024 (Proposal: Disband Core · Issue #921 · monero-project/meta · GitHub) (Proposal: Disband Core · Issue #921 · monero-project/meta · GitHub) was also intended to decentralize decision-making further, which could either streamline or slightly slow coordination. Watching how the new governance structure navigates the next fork will be informative.
  
  

All told, Monero’s roadmap demonstrates a project that is actively advancing. It’s not sitting still on old tech; it’s innovating to maintain its lead in privacy. For investors, a strong roadmap can instill confidence that Monero will remain relevant and competitive (thus retaining or growing its user base). Upgrades like Seraphis could potentially attract new users who were on the fence about Monero’s anonymity set size, or who need better multisig, etc. They might also generate renewed media buzz and interest in Monero upon release.

It’s also worth noting that Monero’s development philosophy is conservative in one sense: changes are incremental and focused on core mission (privacy, security, decentralization). Monero is not chasing trendy features like NFTs or DeFi – which is good for not diluting focus, but it means it won’t have the kind of explosive narrative-driven growth that some platform coins had. Instead, Monero’s growth is likely to be steady and tied to its technological robustness and adoption for privacy. The roadmap reinforces that narrative: it’s all about making Monero even more private, efficient, and secure.

Additional Sources – Development Roadmap:

• GetMonero Roadmap page: Updated official roadmap with completion status ( Roadmap | Monero - secure, private, untraceable ), listing Seraphis, Bulletproofs++, etc.
  
  
• Monero Research Lab (MRL) papers: e.g., “Triptych” (earlier large-ring signature research, now superseded), “Seraphis specification” (on GitHub, technical details), and research meeting logs (Monero Research Lab Meeting - Wed 03 April 2024, 17:00 UTC #986).
  
  
• LocalMonero Blog: “Seraphis: What It Will Do for Monero” (CypherStack, 2024) – a comprehensive but accessible write-up on Seraphis ( Seraphis: What It Will Do for Monero — LocalMonero).
  
  
• GitHub CCS proposals: Funding proposals for Seraphis coding, audits, OSPEAD research (e.g., by Rucknium) – to gauge progress and community support (Rucknium-OSPEAD-Fortifying-Monero-Against-Statistical-Attack.md).
  
  
• Developer blogs or tweets: Some Monero developers occasionally post updates on milestones (e.g., “Seraphis code completed”, “OSPEAD implemented in testnet”).
  
  
• Konferenco Talks: MoneroKon or Defcon presentations by Monero devs – e.g., “Future of Monero” talk if available, which outlines these upcoming changes.
  
  
• Proposals & Discussions on Forums: The Reddit r/Monero has threads like “Seraphis update Q&A” and “Triptych vs Seraphis” which shed light on design decisions.
  
  
• Academic involvement: Monero often collaborates with academic cryptographers (e.g., University researchers auditing or contributing). Any papers or audit summaries published (like OSTIF’s Seraphis audit report when complete) would be key references.
  
  
• Release Notes: Each Monero release (v0.18, v0.19, etc.) has extensive notes – for past context and clues to upcoming (e.g., release note might say “next release will aim to include X”).
  
  
• Community sentiment polls: Sometimes community holds informal polls on priorities (like ring size increase, PoW changes). These can gauge how the next fork might be received.
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• For comparison, Zcash’s Halo upgrade, Firo’s Lelantus Spark, etc., to see where Monero stands. (Monero often ahead, but keeping an eye in case others catch up tech-wise.)

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