Tron (TRX): A Scalable Blockchain Bet on Emerging Market Adoption and Stablecoin Dominance in 2025 / Part 2

Part 2 / Page 3

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Forecasts for 2025 remain cautiously optimistic. Various sources project a minimum price of around $0.19, a maximum of $0.27, and an average trading price in the $0.23–$0.27 range, depending on market conditions and broader crypto trends.

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Summary of Key Metrics and Strategic Implications

Total Supply: TRON’s fixed supply of 100 billion tokens ensures no inflation risk, providing certainty for long-term holders.

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Circulating Supply: Nearly all TRX is now liquid or staked, with the remaining tokens locked in governance or ecosystem reserves.

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Staked Supply: A significant portion (35–40%) is staked, reducing active trading supply and supporting price stability.

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Unlock Schedule: The era of large annual unlocks (5–7 billion per year from 2018–2023) is largely over, with most supply-side shocks now in the past.

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Volatility: Historical unlocks triggered 15–30% price swings, but the market has since matured, with volatility now driven more by external factors and network activity.

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Whale Concentration: The top 100 wallets hold about 60% of supply, representing both a concentration risk and a potential stabilizing force, depending on whale behavior.

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Network Utility: TRON’s leadership in stablecoin settlements and DeFi TVL underpins ongoing demand for TRX, supporting liquidity and long-term value.

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Investor Takeaways

For institutional investors and large holders, the current TRON landscape is defined by a mature supply structure, high staking participation, and robust secondary market liquidity. The risk of sudden supply shocks from unlocks has diminished, but price action remains sensitive to whale activity and broader crypto market cycles. TRON’s dominance in stablecoin transactions and its growing DeFi footprint provide strong utility-driven demand, which, combined with its fixed supply and high staking rates, positions TRX as a relatively stable and liquid asset in the evolving digital asset ecosystem.

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As with any large-cap crypto, prudent risk management requires ongoing monitoring of whale wallet movements, staking trends, and macroeconomic factors. However, the quantitative metrics suggest that TRON has successfully transitioned from a high-risk, early-stage token to a more established, utility-driven network with predictable supply dynamics and deep liquidity

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Source:

TRON (TRX) Guide – CoinShares

https://coinshares.com/dk-en/insights/knowledge/tron-guide/ 

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22. Investor Takeaways and Risk Management

Monitor Unlock Dates:

Institutional investors should track scheduled unlocks and large wallet movements to anticipate liquidity events.

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Assess Staking Trends:

High staking participation reduces immediate sell pressure; sudden decreases may signal upcoming unlock-related sales.

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Evaluate Governance Transparency:

Investors should engage with governance and demand clear, transparent unlock policies to reduce uncertainty.

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Prepare for Volatility:

Unlock events historically lead to price swings; risk management strategies should include liquidity buffers and staggered exit plans.

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Source:

TRON Documentation – Overview

https://tronprotocol.github.io/documentation-en/introduction/overview/ 

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References for Section 10.A (Additional)

TRON (TRX) Guide – CoinShares

https://coinshares.com/dk-en/insights/knowledge/tron-guide/ 

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What is TRON? What is TRX? A Must-Read 2019 Guide Packed Full of Info – Blokt

https://blokt.com/?p=33927 

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TRON Documentation – Overview

https://tronprotocol.github.io/documentation-en/introduction/overview/ 

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TRON (TRX) Price Prediction: How TRX is Poised to Dominate Altseason 2025 – CryptoNews

https://cryptonews.net/news/analytics/30328119/ 

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TRON Price Prediction 2025: TRX Could Reclaim All-Time High – CCN

https://www.ccn.com/tron-trx-price-prediction/ 

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Here’s How Tron’s TRX Will End January 2025 – Watcher Guru

https://watcher.guru/news/heres-how-trons-trx-will-end-january-2025 

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Here’s TRX’s price outlook for 2025 after TRON addresses surge by 64% – AMBCrypto

https://ambcrypto.com/heres-trxs-price-outlook-for-2025-after-tron-addresses-surge-by-64/amp/ 

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TRON (TRX) HOLDERS: 10 GAME-CHANGING MILESTONES TO WATCH IN 2025! – CryptoNews

https://cryptonews.net/news/analytics/30328119/ 

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TRON Documentation – Resource Model

https://tronprotocol.github.io/documentation-en/mechanism-algorithm/resource/ 

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TRON Documentation – FAQ

https://tronprotocol.github.io/documentation-en/faq/ 

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CoinMarketCal – Cryptoasset Calendar

https://coinmarketcal.com/en/?form%5Bcoin%5D%5B%5D=TRON+%28TRX%29&form%5Bmonth%5D=&form%5Bsort_by%5D=hot_events&form%5Bsubmit%5D=&form%5Byear%5D= 

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TRON (TRX) Feed: Events, News & Roadmap – Coindar

https://coindar.org/en/coin/tron 

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TRON MainNet Source Code

https://github.com/tronprotocol/java-tron 

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TRON Tokenomics and Market Dynamics – Changelly

https://changelly.com/blog/tron-trx-price-prediction/ 

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TRON Blockchain Technology – OSL

https://osl.com/en/academy/article/what-is-tron-trx 

10.B. Investor/Team Sell Behaviour

Introduction: The Critical Role of Sell Behaviour in TRX Market Dynamics

Understanding the selling behaviour of the TRON (TRX) founding team, early investors, and large holders (“whales”) is essential for institutional investors and family offices considering exposure to TRX. Sell pressure from these groups can significantly influence market liquidity, price volatility, and overall investor confidence. This section explores historical and recent sell patterns, on-chain analytics, regulatory impacts, and the interplay between staking incentives and sell decisions.

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1. Historical Context: Team and Foundation Token Holdings & Vesting

At TRON’s inception, the Foundation and core team controlled a substantial portion of the total supply-approximately 34%-locked under multi-year vesting agreements to align incentives and prevent immediate market flooding.

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Vesting Schedules:

Team and Foundation tokens were locked with annual unlock tranches beginning roughly one year after mainnet launch in 2018, continuing through 2023. This approach was designed to avoid large, sudden sell-offs and to demonstrate commitment to long-term project success.

Source:

TRON (TRX) Guide – CoinShares

https://coinshares.com/dk-en/insights/knowledge/tron-guide/ 

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Foundation’s Market Management:

The Foundation actively managed its token holdings, including a $20 million buy-back program announced in 2019 aimed at stabilizing TRX prices and supporting community growth. This indicates a strategic approach to balancing liquidity and price support.

Source:

SEC Complaint Against Justin Sun and Tron Foundation – U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission

https://www.sec.gov/files/litigation/complaints/2023/comp-pr2023-59.pdf 

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2. On-Chain Analytics: Large Wallet Movements and Sell Patterns

Whale Concentration:

Analysis reveals extreme supply concentration: the top 100 wallets control over 60% of circulating TRX as of early 2025. Notably, one wallet holds more than 10% of total supply, underscoring the outsized influence of a few holders on market liquidity.

Source:

Tron (TRX) Investor Behavior Shows Interesting Pattern – Investing.com

https://au.investing.com/news/cryptocurrency-news/tron-trx-investor-behavior-shows-interesting-pattern-3382312 

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Large Transfers and Exchange Flows:

Periodic large transfers from whale wallets to exchanges have historically preceded price declines, suggesting profit-taking or liquidity provision. Conversely, large inflows from exchanges to wallets may indicate accumulation or staking.

Source:

TRON's Transaction Volume Surges 84% to 8.4 Million, TRX Eyes $0.32 – Ainvest

https://www.ainvest.com/news/tron-transaction-volume-surges-84-8-4-million-trx-eyes-0-32-2505/ 

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Sell Volume vs. Buy Volume:

In May 2025, whales sold approximately 26.83 million TRX (~$6.5 million), while buying activity was about half that volume (~$3.2 million), indicating net profit-taking but ongoing market participation.

Source:

TRON's Transaction Volume Surges 84% to 8.4 Million, TRX Eyes $0.32 – Ainvest

https://www.ainvest.com/news/tron-transaction-volume-surges-84-8-4-million-trx-eyes-0-32-2505/ 

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3. Market Manipulation and Insider Trading Allegations

Market-Making Team:

Investigations by The Verge in 2022 exposed allegations that TRON employed a “market-making team” tasked with artificially supporting TRX prices through coordinated buys and sells. This team allegedly worked with wealthy “whales” to manipulate price action around announcements, creating misleading liquidity and volume.

Source:

Tron founder Justin Sun and his many escapes – The Verge

https://www.theverge.com/c/22947663/the-many-escapes-of-justin-sun 

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Impact on Sell Behaviour:

Such practices distort natural market dynamics, making it difficult for investors to interpret genuine sell pressure versus orchestrated market moves. This centralization risk is a critical consideration for institutional investors.

Source:

Tron founder Justin Sun and his many escapes – The Verge

https://www.theverge.com/c/22947663/the-many-escapes-of-justin-sun 

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4. Staking as a Sell Pressure Mitigator

DPoS Incentives:

TRON’s Delegated Proof of Stake consensus incentivizes holders to stake TRX for voting rights and rewards, effectively locking up a significant portion of supply. As of early 2025, approximately 35-40% of circulating TRX is staked, reducing immediate sell pressure.

Source:

TRON Documentation – Resource Model

https://tronprotocol.github.io/documentation-en/mechanism-algorithm/resource/ 

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Governance Participation:

Staked TRX grants voting rights for Super Representative elections, encouraging holders to maintain long-term positions aligned with network governance.

Source:

TRON Documentation – Account Model

https://tronprotocol.github.io/documentation-en/mechanism-algorithm/account/ 

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Potential Risks:

If staking rewards decline or governance dissatisfaction grows, stakers may unstake and sell, increasing liquidity risk. Monitoring staking participation trends is thus vital.

Source:

TRON (TRX) Guide – CoinShares

https://coinshares.com/dk-en/insights/knowledge/tron-guide/ 

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5. Investor Holding Patterns and Sentiment Analysis

Coin Holding Time:

Despite TRX price declines of around 10% in some periods, Coin Holding Time surged by over 320%, indicating strong holder conviction and reduced sell pressure from long-term investors.

Source:

Tron (TRX) Investor Behavior Shows Interesting Pattern – Investing.com

https://au.investing.com/news/cryptocurrency-news/tron-trx-investor-behavior-shows-interesting-pattern-3382312 

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Weighted Sentiment:

Contrastingly, TRON’s Weighted Sentiment remains in negative territory, reflecting cautious market sentiment and speculative uncertainty. This divergence suggests that while holders are patient, new entrants and traders remain wary.

Source:

Tron (TRX) Investor Behavior Shows Interesting Pattern – Investing.com

https://au.investing.com/news/cryptocurrency-news/tron-trx-investor-behavior-shows-interesting-pattern-3382312 

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6. Regulatory Environment and Its Influence on Sell Behaviour

SEC Lawsuit:

The March 2023 SEC complaint against Justin Sun and the TRON Foundation for allegedly conducting an unregistered securities offering has introduced legal uncertainty. This has likely influenced some investors to reduce exposure, increasing sell pressure in the short term.

Source:

SEC Complaint Against Justin Sun and Tron Foundation – U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission

https://www.sec.gov/files/litigation/complaints/2023/comp-pr2023-59.pdf 

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Investor Confidence:

Conversely, regulatory clarity may attract institutional investors seeking compliant assets, potentially stabilizing or increasing demand over the medium term.

Source:

TRON (TRX) Guide – CoinShares

https://coinshares.com/dk-en/insights/knowledge/tron-guide/ 

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7. Comparative Analysis: TRX Sell Behaviour vs. Other Layer-1 Tokens

Ethereum (ETH):

ETH’s more decentralized validator set and transparent foundation operations have led to less centralized sell pressure. Vesting schedules for ETH-related tokens (e.g., from ICOs) tend to be longer and more linear, reducing abrupt sell pressure.

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Source:

What is TRON? What is TRX? A Must-Read 2019 Guide Packed Full of Info – Blokt

https://blokt.com/?p=33927 

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Solana (SOL):

Solana experienced significant early sell pressure from venture capital investors post-lockup, but ecosystem growth helped absorb supply.

Source:

What is TRON? What is TRX? A Must-Read 2019 Guide Packed Full of Info – Blokt

https://blokt.com/?p=33927 

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Avalanche (AVAX):

Avalanche’s slower, more transparent vesting schedules have mitigated sudden sell-offs, supporting price stability.

Source:

What is TRON? What is TRX? A Must-Read 2019 Guide Packed Full of Info – Blokt

https://blokt.com/?p=33927 

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8. Actionable Insights for Institutional Investors

On-Chain Monitoring:

Track large wallet movements and exchange inflows/outflows to anticipate potential sell pressure.

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Staking Participation:

Monitor staking rates as a leading indicator of liquidity risk; declining staking may precede increased sell volume.

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Governance Engagement:

Participate in governance to advocate for transparent unlock schedules and foundation reserve management.

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Diversified Exit Strategies:

Plan staggered exits across multiple exchanges and OTC desks to minimize slippage and market impact.

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Regulatory Risk Management:

Stay informed on legal developments impacting TRON to adjust exposure accordingly.

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References for Section 10.B (Expanded)

Tron (TRX) Investor Behavior Shows Interesting Pattern – Investing.com

https://au.investing.com/news/cryptocurrency-news/tron-trx-investor-behavior-shows-interesting-pattern-3382312 

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SEC Complaint Against Justin Sun and Tron Foundation – U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission

https://www.sec.gov/files/litigation/complaints/2023/comp-pr2023-59.pdf 

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Tron founder Justin Sun and his many escapes – The Verge

https://www.theverge.com/c/22947663/the-many-escapes-of-justin-sun 

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TRON's Transaction Volume Surges 84% to 8.4 Million, TRX Eyes $0.32 – Ainvest

https://www.ainvest.com/news/tron-transaction-volume-surges-84-8-4-million-trx-eyes-0-32-2505/ 

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Tron (TRX) Crypto – What It Is and Is It a Good Investment? – Token Metrics

https://www.tokenmetrics.com/blog/what-is-tron-trx-crypto 

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What is TRON? What is TRX? A Must-Read 2019 Guide Packed Full of Info – Blokt

https://blokt.com/?p=33927 

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TRON (TRX) Guide – CoinShares

https://coinshares.com/dk-en/insights/knowledge/tron-guide/ 

10.C. Secondary Market Liquidity

Introduction: The Importance of Secondary Market Liquidity for TRX Investors

Secondary market liquidity-the ease with which TRX tokens can be bought or sold without significantly impacting price-is a cornerstone of investment viability for institutional investors and family offices. High liquidity reduces transaction costs, minimizes slippage during large trades, and provides confidence in the ability to enter or exit positions efficiently. This section analyzes TRON’s liquidity profile across exchanges, trading volumes, order book depth, and the impact of liquidity on price stability and investor strategy.

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1. Exchange Listings and Market Access

TRON (TRX) benefits from broad exchange coverage, listed on virtually all major centralized exchanges (CEXs) and numerous decentralized exchanges (DEXs):

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Major Centralized Exchanges:

TRX is listed on Binance, Coinbase Pro, Kraken, Huobi, OKX, KuCoin, and many others, providing deep liquidity pools and global access. Binance alone accounts for a significant portion of TRX’s daily trading volume.

Source:

TRON (TRX) Markets – CoinMarketCap

https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/tron/#markets 

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Decentralized Exchanges:

TRX is actively traded on DEXs built on TRON’s network, such as JustSwap, which provides on-chain liquidity pools and supports DeFi activity. While DEX volumes are smaller than CEXs, they contribute to ecosystem decentralization and accessibility.

Source:

JustSwap – TRON DEX

https://justswap.org/ 

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Cross-Chain Bridges:

TRX is also bridged to Ethereum and Binance Smart Chain, increasing accessibility and liquidity across ecosystems.

Source:

TRON Cross-Chain Bridges

https://tron.network/bridge 

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2. Trading Volumes and Liquidity Metrics

Average Daily Trading Volume:

As of May 2025, TRX’s average daily trading volume ranges between $500 million to $1 billion across exchanges, reflecting strong market interest and liquidity. This volume supports efficient execution of large trades with minimal slippage on major platforms.

Source:

TRON (TRX) Market Data – CoinGecko

https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/tron 

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Volume Distribution:

Binance consistently leads with approximately 40-50% of total TRX volume, followed by Huobi, OKX, and Coinbase Pro. This concentration in top-tier exchanges ensures robust liquidity but introduces some centralization risk.

Source:

TRON (TRX) Markets – CoinMarketCap

https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/tron/#markets 

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Thank you for taking the time to read this article. We invite you to explore more content on our blog for additional insights and information.

https://www.thestandard.io/blog  

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